Malaysia Budget 2012 was finally tabled last Friday amidst high expectations from Malaysians of all walks of life. Civil servants, particularly, were anticipating a repeat of year 2007’s one-off and broad-based salary revisions which pushed their salaries up by between 7.5% and 35%. However, the measures in Budget 2012 turned out to be slightly different from such expectations — it spelt out a new annual increment structure that will lay a strong foundation for greater flexibility in civil servants’ remuneration in the long run. This is targeted at increasing productivity in the public sector which is generally positive in enhancing government effectiveness in the long term.
Greater flexibility in the employment terms of civil servants (such as the exit policy for underperformers) is a welcome move indeed, although its implementation might meet with initial hurdles as the public sector adjusts to the new employment culture. Overall, with prospects of better remuneration, civil servants are set to get a better deal in their employment if such measures were to be properly implemented.
An important implication of better remuneration for highly productive government employees would naturally be the spillover of higher private consumption in the future. It is generally known that the low- and middle-income segments of the population have the highest marginal propensities to consume (MPC). With Malaysia having one of the highest MPC in the region of about 0.53 (according to our estimate), private consumption will likely continue its role as the major pillar that will spearhead the economy in the coming years.
In the short term, however, measures provided by Budget 2012 will not cause a big jump in private consumption, at least not to the level that would have happened if a broad-based salary revision were to be given.
The mounting concerns about the ever-rising cost of living are addressed by measures such as the provision of subsidies not only for food, but also for petroleum products and cash assistance. As such, speedy rationalisation of subsidies is not top of the government’s priority list.
Due to the government’s financial constraints, we observed that many benefits were dished out on a discriminatory basis. In particular, retirees, senior citizens, taxi drivers and the lower-income groups are supported via various measures to ensure that they can withstand the rising cost of living.
We think positively of such measures, but feel that doubling efforts to contain price increases would trump monetary adjustments in tamping inflation in the long run. Indeed, the latter move is unsustainable in that the government would have to continuously fork out higher compensation if prices were to continue escalating over the years. As such, stricter enforcement of price controls and the Anti-Profiteering Act should be the government’s next logical focus.
We are also of the view that one-off cash payments to the poor and needy, while coming in handy at times like this, will not translate into sustained value in the economy as they are not tied to productivity-driven incentives. We are hopeful that such generosity on the government’s part will not promote a “government-dependent” mentality among Malaysians which would consequently breed complacency, a definite negative in the nation’s drive towards attaining high-income status. We feel positive about the measures aimed at improving the living standards of the low-income group, although we think that there is a distinct lack of such initiatives to ameliorate the financial burdens of the middle-income group, particularly those who reside in high-cost urban areas.
The measures instituted to address the problem of inadequate savings amongst retirees are generally positive, as studies show that a whopping 70% of all retirees tend to exhaust their savings within 10 years. A new tax relief of up to RM3,000 on contributions to a Private Retirement Scheme (PRS) and insurance annuity for 10 years, as well as tax deductions on employers’ contributions to a PRS for their employees and exemptions on income of the Private Retirement Fund are meant to lighten retirees’ financial burdens, decidedly a positive for private consumption going forward. We also feel that the mandatory increase in employers’ EPF contributions is bearable for businesses.
We are intrigued by the government’s optimistic target of 2012’s budget deficit of 4.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is a shade lower than our projection of 4.9% of GDP, although we do not feel that such a target is out of reach, judging by Malaysia’s relatively high revenue-to-GDP ratio which is among the highest in the region. However, the attainment of this result is predicated on the achievement of actual growth in 2011, which we view to be in the lower range of the government’s projection.
The sharp reduction in the budget gap is probably aimed at taking some pressure off a possible sovereign re-rating, in our view. However, there are reasons for not being overly concerned about Malaysia’s debt and deficit positions.
First, the various macro matrices commonly used for sovereign evaluation indicate that Malaysia still stands rather favourably in relation to its regional peers. At the same time, government revenue as a percentage of GDP is among the highest in the region. As for its debt position, almost 96% of total debt is domestic debt, and second, financing the debt through Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) is never difficult as there is strong demand for the instruments from financial institutions like banks, insurance companies and other government-linked investment companies.
Following the government’s persistent budget deficit, albeit smaller than in previous years, we think that sustained MGS issuance momentum for 2012 will address continuing investor demand for high-quality fixed-income instruments amidst heightened uncertainty that is weighing on corporate debt-raising in the domestic bond market. It is truly a sound strategy to borrow domestically, given the current turmoil in global financial markets that has been exacerbated by sovereign-debt concerns.
While there is a noticeable absence of any groundbreaking capital market-specific measures, the incentives for the Kuala Lumpur International Financial District (KLIFD) could sow the seeds for the future competitiveness of Kuala Lumpur and Malaysia as a global financial centre. Capital market-specific measures were the extension of tax exemptions on the issuance and trading of foreign currency sukuk by three years and tax deductions for expenses incurred in the issuance of sukuk wakala for three years starting 2012. The income-tax exemptions for KLIFD, stretching over a 10-year period, underscores the forward-thinking approach on the part of the government to ensure Malaysia remains a vibrant and competitive financial hub in the years to come.
On the hot issue of the budget deficit, we feel that the government should take a long-term perspective about containing future expenditures to ensure that its fiscal position will continuously be in check. For instance, medical expenses incurred by an ageing population will represent a significant burden on government coffers due to changing demographics in the years to come. As such, we feel that measures such as withdrawals from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) for the purchase of medical insurance should not only be introduced, but also be actively promoted by the government.
At the same time, we opine that the government needs to exercise stricter control on the size of the public sector so as not to cause undue acceleration in operating expenditure going forward. In addition, the focus on monitoring expenditure on supply and services should never waver. Indeed, this suggestion stems from the National Audit Department’s report which indicated that there is considerable room for improvement in the supervision of certain areas of expenditure.
We applaud the government’s efforts to address the citizenry’s housing needs – however, the revision to the real property gains tax (RPGT) structure is too mild to be effective, in our view. The 5% increase in the tax imposed on those who sell their properties within two years of acquisition will not likely have a material effect, especially on those who speculate in this sector.
While we are cognisant of and understand the opposing perspectives (particularly from industry players who are concerned about the repercussions of the higher RPGT), we hold fast to the view that the proposed revision will still not address the froth in the property sector at this juncture. Indeed, with the prevalence of relatively easy credit ties provided by the banking sector,
property prices look set to remain on their upward trajectory in the near term.
We deem the overall macro assessment as fair, although the government seems more optimistic than private economists about the strength of private investment. Indeed, despite experiencing a strong rebound in 1H2011, a possible increase in risk aversion (should the global economy take a turn for the worse) could well dampen the sustainability of private-investment strength.
We also maintain that the speed at which construction projects are implemented is of paramount importance in ensuring growth proceeds apace. In terms of GDP growth, our projection of 5.2% for 2012 is in the lower range of the government’s forecast as we remain cautious about the investment momentum that is not attributed to any lack of efforts on the government’s part, but due to the return of risk aversion within the investor fraternity.
– by Malaysian Rating Corporation Bhd
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